OUST BBM Scenario: is BBM's Presidency at Risk After the 2025 Election? The Analysis

 

My Take: The 2025 Election as a Potential Tipping Point for Marcos Jr.

Look, as someone who's observed Philippine politics for a while now, I can't shake this feeling that the 2025 midterm elections are going to be a lot more than just a routine vote. I'm starting to see a potential scenario, and it's a bit of a wild one, where Bongbong Marcos Jr.'s position could become incredibly fragile after the results come in.

Here's my personal take: If the pro-Duterte forces manage to significantly strengthen their presence in the Senate, especially with figures like Willie Revillame, Pia Cayetano, and Camille Villar winning, things could get really messy for the current administration. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm seeing the pieces on the board, and they don't look good for Marcos Jr.

I get this gut feeling that the loyalty within the current alliance isn't as solid as it seems. We all know how quickly political allegiances can shift in this country, especially when money and power are involved. And if those pro-Duterte senators gain enough influence, there's a real possibility they could turn the tables, shifting the focus from any potential impeachment of Sara Duterte to, well, Marcos Jr. himself.

Let's do some back-of-the-envelope math here. If you add up the potential numbers – the 2 Cayetanos, 2 Villars, 3 Tulfos, Lapid, Estrada, Revillame, Revilla and other known allies like, Go, Dela Rosa, and Padilla– you're looking at a pretty sizable bloc in the Senate. Thirteen senators, according to the numbers I'm looking at. That's a lot of leverage. And honestly, I'm worried that some of those senators could be swayed by the right offer.

It's a cynical view, I know, but I've seen it happen before. It's not that I'm saying everyone is corrupt, but I'm saying that the temptation would be there.

Ironically, from my perspective, Marcos Jr. might actually be better off if more opposition senators, like Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, win. Why? Because they're known anti-Duterte figures. They wouldn't have any incentive to oust Marcos Jr., since they'd know a Duterte takeover would be the alternative. They'd be a sort of insurance policy, in a way.

This whole thing is just my opinion, of course. I'm just an ordinary Filipino citizen, trying to make sense of the political landscape. But I'm telling you, I've got this uneasy feeling about 2025. It could be a real game-changer, and not necessarily in a good way for Marcos Jr. I think the 2025 election could be the start of a very interesting chapter in Philippine politics.